Around the world, right-wing populist authoritarianism is on the rise. Fearing mass migration, voters have increasingly flocked to anti-immigrant populism. This dynamic has been particularly visible in the United States and Europe, but it has also been documented in Global South countries. The rise of anti-immigrant politics comes alongside a rise in climate-driven migration. As the Earth warms, climate change threatens to uproot many more people and—indirectly—usher in a new era of populist authoritarianism. This trend could have devastating consequences for democracy, human rights, and life itself.
Right-wing populism as a response to mass migration
Empirical research indicates that high levels of immigration can lead to right-wing populist backlash. In ten European countries, studies found that increased immigration was associated with an increase in the vote share of right-wing populist parties. Analysis suggests the influx of refugees since 2015 was a “boon” to populist parties, which continue to enjoy heightened levels of support. For example, Greek islanders began supporting the far-right Golden Dawn party in greater numbers as thousands of refugees traveled across the Aegean Sea in 2015. In the United States, the arrival of poor immigrants increased the Republican Party’s vote share between 1990 and 2010. Fears about changing racial demographics— partly due to immigration—led to increased support for Trump among white Americans, including Democrats. In the early 1900s, Americans reacted similarly to mass migration from Europe.
What explains this relationship between immigration and populism? Scholars believe economic conditions—such as rising inequality, trade liberalization, and automation—create “fertile ground” for populist fearmongering by eroding the social status and material conditions of dominant social groups. Right-wing populists prey on this insecurity by scapegoating immigrants. They offer a simple yet convincing narrative: immigrants pose a threat to “native” culture, jobs, and security.
Media attention to migration can make this fear-based messaging particularly potent. Mass movements of people draw media coverage, which helps populists tap into racist and anti-immigrant attitudes among voters. Studies show that high levels of immigration and right-wing populist success are primarily correlated with an increase in the salience of immigration as an issue rather than a general increase in anti-immigrant sentiment across the voting population.
While hostility to immigrants has risen in communities directly exposed to migration, immigrants can actually reduce anti-immigrant sentiment at the local level as they build relationships and communities with established residents. Indeed, right-wing populist support is often strongest in more homogenous, rural communities. Media attention on migration flows and populist fearmongering can trigger fears of imagined immigration in places that are not experiencing real immigration.
The “great climate migration”
We live in an era of mass migration. The United Nations estimates that the number of displaced persons has more than tripled since 2000, rising to a staggering 122 million people in 2024. Most people flee within their countries, but international migration has also reached unprecedented levels, even as a share of the global population.
While it is difficult to assess the complex, interlocking causes of migration, there is growing evidence that climate change is contributing to migration flows. Most climate-related migration occurs within countries, as people move from agricultural areas to cities in search of less climate-vulnerable work. Yet, empirical analysis and first-hand testimony suggest climate change is also pushing people across international borders. Several studies found that abnormal weather conditions in Mexico increased migration to the United States. Researchers also concluded that climatic conditions played a “significant role” in driving refugees to seek asylum in Europe between 2011 and 2015. Likewise, climatic events were correlated with migration from poor to wealthy countries between 1990 and 2001.
Climate change drives migration in myriad ways. Extreme weather events temporarily displace millions of people each year, some of whom permanently relocate. In the wake of Hurricanes Irma and Maria, tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans migrated to the continental United States, while thousands of Pakistanis migrated to Europe after devastating floods in 2022. However, slow-onset changes are more likely to push people from their homes. Climate impacts such as sea-level rise and persistent drought can disrupt livelihoods and contribute to conflict, leading people to move in search of physical or financial security. As a result, people who are considered economic migrants or refugees may have left their homes “in part because of climate change impacts.” Internal migration to poor, overcrowded cities may, in turn, encourage international migration.
These trends are expected to increase in the coming years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that climate change threatens to substantially increase migration and displacement in the coming decades. Climate hazards could place hundreds of millions of people at risk of displacement by the end of the century, particularly if polluters fail to curb emissions. The IPCC further cautions that climate change “increases risks of violent conflict” and thereby poses “severe risks to peace within this century.” More immediately, the World Bank estimates that slow-onset climate events could internally displace over 200 million people within the next 25 years.
However, mass displacement may not be inevitable. Social and political factors will be crucial determinants of future displacement. Governments should—as a matter of global justice—reduce levels of climate displacement by mitigating emissions, supporting local adaptation efforts, and providing assistance to communities most impacted by climate change.
This uncertainty about future migration has led organizations and scholars to caution against assuming that climate change will lead to mass migration, as such predictions can feed fearmongering narratives and justify the securitization of borders. However, by failing to contend with the risk of increased migration, this scholarly caution leaves a vacuum for populist narratives.
The need for a positive vision of mass migration
As the climate crisis worsens, it could further fan the flames of ethnocentrism and strengthen right-wing populism. These fearful responses to climate migration threaten to escalate democratic backsliding and erode human rights. Climate change may also feed right-wing populism by creating a sense of crisis. Once in power, right-wing populists are likely to reinforce this dynamic by impeding climate action and forcing more migration as people flee political repression.
Understanding this dynamic can guide the response to populist authoritarianism. As many have argued in the wake of Trump’s victory, policymakers should combat the economic insecurity that too often creates an appetite for xenophobic messaging. Reducing inequality and raising living standards would undermine the foundations of right-wing populism. However, it is also important to address fears about mass migration directly.
Rather than downplaying the likelihood of mass displacement, politicians and advocates should present a positive vision that embraces this possibility. Liberal parties generally do not gain votes by shifting to the right on immigration, as this cedes the issue to right-wing populists.
Instead, liberal and left-wing advocates should offer messaging that welcomes mass migration. This vision can be grounded in a reparations and global justice framework, drawing on religious and cultural traditions of hospitality. It can also speak to voters’ self-interest, emphasizing values of community, mutual aid, interdependence, and “radical love.” Welcoming migrants can serve as a plank in a broader platform of human solidarity—a hopeful alternative to fearful, self-destructive tribalism. This vision, paired with community-building policies, may be critical to safeguarding democracy and human rights in the twenty-first century.